Good News or Bad News about Dropouts?
The rate at which high school students are dropping out of school has drawn a lot of attention lately from education reformers and researchers. It turns out that the statistic--which one might think would be a very simple one to measure--is anything but. Apparently, two very respected researchers have found conflicting evidence that leads them to disagree about the percentage of students completing high school. And the disagreement isn't trivial: depending on who you believe, we're talking about almost 500,000 students every year who are either dropping out or staying in school.
How is this possible, one might ask? Well it turns out that one set of research, completed by economist Larry Mishel, which relies on US Department of Education data and US Census surveys, something like 80%-83% of students are completing high school. Political scientist Jay Greene, however, asserts that the real figure is closer to 67% (and closer to 50% in cities), and he draws this conclusion from data given out by schools and school districts directly.
Which number is right? It's hard to say -- and therein lies the biggest problem. Putting aside for a moment the obvious policy implications that the two difference conclusions would produce, I think it says a great deal about our priorities as a nation that we don't actually know who or how many of our children are completing high school. Millions of dollars are spent each year monitoring complex statistics like consumer behavior, cross-sector unemployment rates, stock market projections, and others. Even medium sized businesses can now tell you with remarkable clarity who their customers are, what they are buying, and where and when they are buying it. But our nation, the United States of America, doesn't know how many of its kids aren't even completing a basic level of education?
The good news is that people are beginning to focus on this graduation rate debate with increasing concern. Let us hope that this concern is capitalized into concrete action -- and let us do our own part to see to it that this happens.
